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🌏 Rates can't carry India's rupee any more, so the RBI has turned to plumbing
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The day in view

🌏 Rates can't carry India's rupee any more, so the RBI has turned to plumbing

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom October 12, 2026 4 min read
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India's inflation hit 5.54% in September, a 23-month high, and the real policy rate is slightly negative. The Reserve Bank of India answered with dollar sales for oil refiners and curbs on rupee speculation, and the rupee closed at 95.75 per dollar.

Grouped bar chart of CPI-based inflation and food inflation for Aug-26 and Sep-26, labeled 4.83, 5.97, 5.54 and 7.74.
MoSPI’s September CPI print is a 23-month high and the fourth straight month above the RBI’s 4% target, days after the MPC’s first 25bp hike in years. Source
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September consumer prices in India rose 5.54% from a year earlier, against a 5.40% forecast and 4.83% in August, according to the Ministry of Statistics. That is a 23-month high and the fourth straight month above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% target. Food did the damage. Inflation in that category accelerated to 7.74% from 5.97%, with rural food at 8.06%. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, moved only to 4.3% from 4.2% (Financial Express), which puts the pressure on supply and energy rather than broad demand.

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