South Africa hiked 25 basis points to 7.25%, Indonesia held and added hedging discounts, Mexico dropped its hold guidance, and Brazil cut to 13.75% with a real rate near 9.5pp. One oil shock near $100/bbl, four different tools.
Lesetja Kganyago’s SARB chose a second 2026 hike over growth support as Middle East fuel shocks split emerging-market policy paths this week. Source
Read this week's emerging-market decisions as hawks versus doves and you miss the point. Each central bank is spending credibility in a different currency. The shock is common: oil near or above $100/bbl from the Iran conflict, and global yields that cap everyone's room. The responses are not.
