The euro area composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September, a three-year high, yet consumer confidence fell to −16.5 and German willingness to save hit its highest since 2008. The survey may be reading the energy shock, not end demand.
S&P Global’s September flash PMI at 53.1, the strongest euro-area expansion since April 2023, is being read as a manufacturing upswing led by Germany and tied to AI and defence spending. Source
Euro area business activity just posted its strongest reading in years. The September flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 53.1, up from 52.0 and above a forecast near 51.7, the highest since April 2023. New orders grew at their fastest pace since May 2022. The obvious headline is a European recovery. The better question is whether the survey is picking up end demand or the energy shock.
