Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Home prices beat forecasts, but builders are pulling the other way

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index rose 2.1% year-over-year in June, beating forecasts, even as US housing starts fell 12.4% in July and the Chicago Fed's regional activity gauge turned negative. The divergence complicates the case for a near-term rate cut.

🇺🇸 Home prices beat forecasts, but builders are pulling the other way
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index rose 2.1% year-over-year in June, beating forecasts, even as US housing starts fell 12.4% in July and the Chicago Fed's regional activity gauge turned negative. The divergence complicates the case for a near-term rate cut.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Germany just gave the ECB every excuse it needed to hike again

Germany's Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, and the ifo sentiment index hit a one-year high of 88.8. That strips the ECB of its best argument for pausing, with eurozone inflation still running at 3.2%.

🇪🇺 Germany just gave the ECB every excuse it needed to hike again
Germany's Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, and the ifo sentiment index hit a one-year high of 88.8. That strips the ECB of its best argument for pausing, with eurozone inflation still running at 3.2%.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 BoE's hawkish dissenters are looking better by the day as UK inflation reaccelerates

UK CPI reaccelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6%, vindicating the three Bank of England policymakers who voted for a hike that month while the majority held rates at 3.75%. Gilt yields near cycle highs pile on the pressure ahead of the September 17 decision.

🇬🇧 BoE's hawkish dissenters are looking better by the day as UK inflation reaccelerates
UK CPI reaccelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6%, vindicating the three Bank of England policymakers who voted for a hike that month while the majority held rates at 3.75%. Gilt yields near cycle highs pile on the pressure ahead of the September 17 decision.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's consumer confidence craters while Singapore's factories keep humming

Brazil's consumer confidence gauge fell to 84.7 in August from 88.3, and South Africa's leading indicator slipped to 116.60, while Singapore's July factory output is set to confirm Asia's AI-driven export strength. The emerging-markets growth gap is widening ahead of the fourth quarter.

🌏 Brazil's consumer confidence craters while Singapore's factories keep humming
Brazil's consumer confidence gauge fell to 84.7 in August from 88.3, and South Africa's leading indicator slipped to 116.60, while Singapore's July factory output is set to confirm Asia's AI-driven export strength. The emerging-markets growth gap is widening ahead of the fourth quarter.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China holds rates for a 15th month running as retail sales nearly stall

China's central bank held its Loan Prime Rate at 3.00% for a 15th straight month even as July retail sales grew just 0.6% year-on-year, badly missing forecasts. The PBOC is choosing yuan stability over a stimulus response.

🇨🇳 China holds rates for a 15th month running as retail sales nearly stall
China's central bank held its Loan Prime Rate at 3.00% for a 15th straight month even as July retail sales grew just 0.6% year-on-year, badly missing forecasts. The PBOC is choosing yuan stability over a stimulus response.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.