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๐ŸŒ Brazil's rally outruns its own inflation data as Bolsonaro forces a runoff
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The day in view

๐ŸŒ Brazil's rally outruns its own inflation data as Bolsonaro forces a runoff

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom October 5, 2026 4 min read
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Brazil's EWZ fund jumped more than 11% after Flรกvio Bolsonaro's 47.03% edged Lula's 45.16% in Sunday's first-round vote, forcing an October 25 runoff, even as Brazil's inflation forecast rose for a third straight week and business activity fell to a one-year low.

Daily USD/BRL candlestick chart from March to October with a sharp drop on the right to about 4.98.
The real jumped as investors priced Flรกvio Bolsonaroโ€™s first-place finish, the first time Lula has failed to lead a presidential first round since 1998. Source
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Markets delivered their verdict on Brazil's election before the ballots were fully tabulated. Senator Flรกvio Bolsonaro finished Sunday's first round with 47.03% against incumbent Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva's 45.16%, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), a result that ran ahead of final private polling and forced a runoff on 25 October.

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Tags
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  • tag Emerging Markets Emerging Markets
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  • X
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