£18.3bn: UK public borrowing in August, £3.5bn above the fiscal watchdog's forecast. It landed the same week the CBI's factory order-books survey posted its sharpest two-month rebound in almost 50 years, five weeks before the 28 October budget.
CBI Economics' September Industrial Trends chart, as manufacturers posted the largest two-month order-book rebound in the survey's 49-year history. Source
Two numbers came out of the UK this week that have no business sitting next to each other: the sharpest two-month jump in factory sentiment in almost 50 years, and a borrowing overshoot that leaves the Chancellor with even less room to manoeuvre. A manufacturing recovery is normally unambiguous good news. Here it's arguably the opposite: it raises the political cost of the spending cuts that would otherwise plug the fiscal hole.
