> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://macrosoup.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # πŸ“° Daily Macro Roundup: 2026-10-14 - URL: https://macrosoup.com/daily-macro-roundup-2026-10-14/ - Published: 2026-10-14T14:40:04.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-14T14:40:04.000Z - Author: Macro Soup Newsroom - Tags: The day in view, The Roundup Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place. ## πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ One tenth of a point on core CPI has put an October Fed hike at even odds US consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, and core rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected. The two-year Treasury yield jumped 13.1 basis points, and markets now put an October Fed rate hike at roughly even odds. [πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ One tenth of a point on core CPI has put an October Fed hike at even oddsUS consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, and core rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected. The two-year Treasury yield jumped 13.1 basis points, and markets now put an October Fed rate hike at roughly even odds.Macro Soup![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUl2395XsAEQxjq.jpg)](https://macrosoup.com/one-tenth-of-a-point-on-core-cpi-has-put-an-october-fed-hike-at-even-odds/) ## πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί German wholesale inflation hits 8.7%, and the ECB can see it coming German wholesale prices rose 1.9% in September against a 0.6% forecast, taking the annual rate to 8.7%, the largest increase since February 2023\. Energy costs are spreading into metals, grain and chemicals, and Lagarde says the ECB cannot wait for second-round effects. [πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί German wholesale inflation hits 8.7%, and the ECB can see it comingGerman wholesale prices rose 1.9% in September against a 0.6% forecast, taking the annual rate to 8.7%, the largest increase since February 2023\. Energy costs are spreading into metals, grain and chemicals, and Lagarde says the ECB cannot wait for second-round effects.Macro Soup![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUh7TIHWsAAcPew.jpg)](https://macrosoup.com/german-wholesale-inflation-hits-8-7-and-the-ecb-can-see-it-coming/) ## πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Pill doubts the market's four hikes while Greene reads the IMF upgrade as a case for 4% Huw Pill doubts the market's four-hike path for the Bank of England, while Megan Greene reads the IMF's upgrade of UK 2026 growth to 1.3% as a case for tighter policy. Thursday's August GDP print is the first test. [πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Pill doubts the market's four hikes while Greene reads the IMF upgrade as a case for 4%Huw Pill doubts the market's four-hike path for the Bank of England, while Megan Greene reads the IMF's upgrade of UK 2026 growth to 1.3% as a case for tighter policy. Thursday's August GDP print is the first test.Macro Soup![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUkpIpgW0AACPw5.jpg)](https://macrosoup.com/pill-doubts-the-markets-four-hikes-while-greene-reads-the-imf-upgrade-as-a-case-for-4/) ## 🌏 India's wholesale inflation is running at twice the retail rate, and retail hasn't caught up yet India's September wholesale inflation hit 11.39%, about double the 5.54% consumer price print, which points to more pass-through after the central bank's hike. In Brazil, economists raised inflation forecasts but cut policy-rate calls ahead of the election runoff. [🌏 India's wholesale inflation is running at twice the retail rate, and retail hasn't caught up yetIndia's September wholesale inflation hit 11.39%, about double the 5.54% consumer price print, which points to more pass-through after the central bank's hike. In Brazil, economists raised inflation forecasts but cut policy-rate calls ahead of the election runoff.Macro Soup![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUcD2jkbgAA2CvB.png)](https://macrosoup.com/indias-wholesale-inflation-is-running-at-twice-the-retail-rate-and-retail-hasnt-caught-up-yet/) ## πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's export boom and 5.0% factory inflation bypass households China's September exports rose 36.3% and factory-gate prices 5.0%, the fastest since 2022, yet consumer prices gained only 0.9% and household loans were flat. The PBOC must now balance a firm yuan against weak domestic demand before Monday's third-quarter GDP. [πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's export boom and 5.0% factory inflation bypass householdsChina's September exports rose 36.3% and factory-gate prices 5.0%, the fastest since 2022, yet consumer prices gained only 0.9% and household loans were flat. The PBOC must now balance a firm yuan against weak domestic demand before Monday's third-quarter GDP.Macro Soup![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUkjqbdW0AAYCE-.jpg)](https://macrosoup.com/chinas-export-boom-and-5-0-factory-inflation-bypass-households/) That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.