> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://macrosoup.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # πŸ“° Daily Macro Roundup: 2026-09-16 - URL: https://macrosoup.com/daily-macro-roundup-2026-09-16/ - Published: 2026-09-16T14:20:03.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-16T14:20:03.000Z - Author: Macro Soup Newsroom - Tags: The day in view, The Roundup Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place. ## πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Retail sales surged as Empire State collapsed, and the Fed hikes today anyway US retail sales jumped 1.2% in August, beating forecasts, even as the Empire State Manufacturing Index collapsed to 7.6 from 20.6\. The Fed delivers a widely expected quarter-point rate hike this afternoon under Chair Kevin Warsh. [πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Retail sales surged as Empire State collapsed, and the Fed hikes today anywayUS retail sales jumped 1.2% in August, beating forecasts, even as the Empire State Manufacturing Index collapsed to 7.6 from 20.6\. The Fed delivers a widely expected quarter-point rate hike this afternoon under Chair Kevin Warsh.Macro Soup![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSVpa5-a4AA_5MN.png)](https://macrosoup.com/retail-sales-surged-as-empire-state-collapsed-and-the-fed-hikes-today-anyway/) ## πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί ECB's inflation forecast is colliding with this week's data German wholesale prices jumped 6.8% year-over-year in August, the fastest pace since February 2023, just as ECB board member Isabel Schnabel called recent energy-price moves "quite concerning." The central bank's temporary-shock assumption looks shakier by the day. [πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί ECB's inflation forecast is colliding with this week's dataGerman wholesale prices jumped 6.8% year-over-year in August, the fastest pace since February 2023, just as ECB board member Isabel Schnabel called recent energy-price moves "quite concerning." The central bank's temporary-shock assumption looks shakier by the day.Macro Soup![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSK9VFIa8AAWzkP.jpg)](https://macrosoup.com/ecbs-inflation-forecast-is-colliding-with-this-weeks-data/) ## πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ UK inflation jumps to 3.1%, but it's an oil problem, not a Bailey problem UK inflation rose to 3.1% in August on a petrol-price spike tied to Middle East oil disruptions. Core inflation held steady, the labour market kept weakening, and the Bank of England's rate call just got harder. [πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ UK inflation jumps to 3.1%, but it's an oil problem, not a Bailey problemUK inflation rose to 3.1% in August on a petrol-price spike tied to Middle East oil disruptions. Core inflation held steady, the labour market kept weakening, and the Bank of England's rate call just got harder.Macro Soup![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSVEnuEXUAAFSR1.jpg)](https://macrosoup.com/uk-inflation-jumps-to-3-1-but-its-an-oil-problem-not-a-bailey-problem/) ## 🌏 Brazil cuts rates into its own inflation warning, right as the Fed hikes Brazil cut its Selic policy rate 25 basis points to 13.75%, the fifth straight cut, hours after a wholesale price gauge unexpectedly jumped 1.47% in September. That undercuts its own disinflation case, right as the Fed hikes the same evening. [🌏 Brazil cuts rates into its own inflation warning, right as the Fed hikesBrazil cut its Selic policy rate 25 basis points to 13.75%, the fifth straight cut, hours after a wholesale price gauge unexpectedly jumped 1.47% in September. That undercuts its own disinflation case, right as the Fed hikes the same evening.Macro Soup![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSGtOyaXIAQ-gKw.jpg)](https://macrosoup.com/brazil-cuts-rates-into-its-own-inflation-warning-right-as-the-fed-hikes/) ## πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's central bank tells markets the credit gauge doesn't mean what it used to China's central bank governor used the Communist Party's top theoretical journal to argue that August's weak credit data, new loans of just Β₯60bn against a roughly Β₯400bn forecast, reflects a deliberate pivot toward interest-rate tools rather than a policy failure. [πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's central bank tells markets the credit gauge doesn't mean what it used toChina's central bank governor used the Communist Party's top theoretical journal to argue that August's weak credit data, new loans of just Β₯60bn against a roughly Β₯400bn forecast, reflects a deliberate pivot toward interest-rate tools rather than a policy failure.Macro Soup![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSO6OccXQAEMKyd.jpg)](https://macrosoup.com/chinas-central-bank-tells-markets-the-credit-gauge-doesnt-mean-what-it-used-to/) That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.